By - matthew team forecast
How population forecasting influences democracy in Australia
With the Victorian State election happening this weekend, our lead forecaster explains why good local population forecasts are critical to ensuring the voices of each person in the electorate are fairly represented.
Where is the demographic centre of Melbourne? And how is it changing?
One of the great, nerdy things we do as demographic analysts is to compare how the balance of population changes across a City over time. As part of our recent updates to .id’s Victorian population forecasts,...
Who will win the race to be Australia’s number 1 capital city?
While many in Melbourne already view their city as the cultural capital of Australia, Sydney still reigns in terms of population as Australia’s largest capital city, with .id estimating a population of 5.07...
Forecasting the future of NSW: Inner city population rises as Sydney builds upwards
Greater Sydney is set to grow by more than 1.5 million people in just over 20 years, from 5.07 million in 2017 to 6.62 million people in 2040. With fewer greenfield sites in inner city areas, we take a look at...
New South Wales: The return of the premier state?
The population of New South Wales is set to reach 9.644 million over the next 20 years, with an extra 1.927 million new residents by 2036. The rate of population growth in NSW is typically slower than the rest...
Forecasting the future of NSW: How will regional population growth play out in the future?
Population growth in regional New South Wales has been sluggish over recent years, however, some regional fronts still show strong growth, particularly around fringe and coastal areas around Greater Sydney. In...
Share of urban development in greenfield versus established areas
We recently had an enquiry from a client in Cardinia regarding the share of development in Melbourne in greenfield versus established areas. Scott and I have spent some time and we have crunched the numbers for...
What’s happening with population growth in Australia?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its latest population summary for Australian States and Territories in their publication Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0) for the...
Are more people moving to Australia?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its latest population summary for Australian States and Territories in their publication Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0) for the...
Perth vs Brisbane – The game of “population growth”
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its latest population summary for Australian States and Territories in their publication Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0) for the...
Keeping the "local" in Local Government - a population perspective on council amalgamations
‘Reform’ is one of the favourite words of the Australian Government lexicon. Reform seems to come in many guises and in the case of Local Government, reform means make ‘em bigger and better. Of course, one of...
When will Sydney run out of greenfield land?
.id has undertaken a set of highly detailed population forecast for New South Wales and the ACT over the last 12 months. This work has given us a great insight into some of the planning challenges for urban...
New South Wales – a population forecasting journey
The pundits enjoy talking about Queensland and Western Australia for their population and employment growth potential, but for sheer scale and size, New South Wales is the winner. We have had the ‘pleasure’ of...
Which States are the winners in the migration game?
When it comes to net interstate migration in Australia, all States and Territories tend to lose to Queensland, with New South Wales having the greatest loss. Victoria and New South Wales traditionally lose...
Overseas migration has peaked – how far will it fall?
Overseas migration is the most volatile component of population change to the Australian population. There has been a significant variation in the net overseas migration gain to Australia over the last 30-40...
Increasing fertility rates – a trend or a blip?
Fertility trends have changed considerably in Australia over the last decade. Australia’s fertility rate had been falling steadily since the baby boom of the immediate post World War Two period. Many developed...
How much older can we get?
We are living longer than ever before but there is significant controversy regarding the likelihood of continued increases in life expectancy. In general terms, survival rates (share of persons living to next...
Will the kids ever leave home?
One of the funny things about doing population forecasting is the response you get from clients about certain issues. One such issue that cuts close to the bone is this vexed issue of when will the children...
