New South Wales: The return of the premier state?
The population of New South Wales is set to reach 9.644 million over the next 20 years, with an extra 1.927 million new residents by 2036. The rate of population growth in NSW is typically slower than the rest of Australia however, recent growth rates indicate the premier state is bucking previous sluggish trends.
What’s driving growth in the premier state?
Following the end of the Australian mining investment boom, there has been a re-distribution of population away from the mining states of Queensland and Western Australia, with Victoria and New South Wales as the main beneficiaries.
Over the past decade, there have been three key demographic drivers to population growth in NSW:
- Higher overseas migration to Australia
- Lower levels of interstate migration loss
- Increasing numbers of births.
What does the future hold for NSW?
Moving forward, the shape of the state’s population is changing. The population of NSW will continue to age, with significant increases in older age groups, especially those 65 and over. However, the state’s population has been transformed over the last 15 years, with growth in younger age groups, namely children aged 0-4 years and people in their 20s. This trend will see a youthful resurgence of population in NSW, driven by higher births and migration in the state.
Where will population growth play out?
With the state’s population growing into the future, it’s important to understand where and when this will occur, especially for the planning and provision of services and infrastructure.
While Greater Sydney is forecast to grow at a much faster rate than regional parts of NSW, over time the gap in population growth rates will begin to close. Strong population growth in Greater Sydney will be counterbalanced by losses in population to other states in Australia.
Our blog series Forecasting the future of NSW goes into more detail on how growth will unfold in New South Wales. Read more about population growth in Greater Sydney and Regional NSW.
At a more granular level, changes in population will unfold in different patterns across different local areas in New South Wales.
To read suburban stories of change in New South Wales, download our latest eBook: New South Wales – Return of the premier state?
.id is a team of demographers, population forecasters, spatial planners, urban economists, and data experts who use a unique combination of online tools and consulting to help governments and organisations understand their local areas. Access our free demographic resources here.
Matthew - Team Forecast
Matthew is at the forefront of land, housing and population forecasting in Australia. As the developer of .id’s forecasting models and an author of .id’s e-books, he is a sought-after and entertaining presenter, and an inspiring consultant. He provides comprehensive insights into the migration, housing and land use changes that drive population and age structure change at the neighbourhood level. Matthew has had a profound influence on .id’s thinking about how we understand cities and regions. Matthew is currently heading a team developing micro-geography forecasts for the whole of Australia.
