Australia's population is still growing strongly, but the growth rate is definitely falling from the heights we saw in the 2022-23 year. Western Australia saw the most growth over 2023-24, while other states continued the reversion to their pre-COVID patterns.
The June 2024 release of National Population Growth by the ABS is always eagerly awaited. June quarter releases always come out just before Christmas, and complete the financial year. While this is for states and territories only, it forms the basis for the annual update of population for all local government and smaller areas next March.
Overseas migration continues to drive Australia's population growth
At June 2024, the population of Australia stood at 27,204,809 people, up by 552,032 people from the previous year. That's a very large increase and it would be the largest population growth on record if it wasn't for the previous year – in 2022-23 the population grew by 638,378 people, about 84,000 more than 2023-24. Nevertheless, a growth rate of 2.07% is still very high in historic terms, and is driven by continued high net overseas migration, which was +445,638 for the year. Net migration has also tapered off a bit from the previous year, but over the last 20 years we have averaged between 250-300,000 net migrants, so it's still very high, really slowing down only in the last two quarters.
Approximately 81% of Australia's growth came through net migration and the other 19% from natural increase (births minus deaths). With a low birth rate, the number of births (289,100) was the lowest since 2005 despite a larger population.
How did population growth play out across the states and territories?
As is always the case, the national story looks quite different when broken down to states and territories.
Estimated Resident Population and annual components of change by State/Territory, June 2024
| State/Territory |
ERP June 2024 |
Change over previous year |
% change over previous year |
Natural Increase |
Net overseas migration |
Net interstate migration |
% overseas migration |
| NSW |
8,484,357 |
143,158 |
1.72% |
31,550 |
142,473 |
-30,865 |
99.5% |
| Vic |
6,981,352 |
165,111 |
2.42% |
31,588 |
132,859 |
664 |
80.5% |
| Qld |
5,586,322 |
125,845 |
2.30% |
21,003 |
74,932 |
29,910 |
59.5% |
| SA |
1,878,029 |
25,057 |
1.35% |
3,353 |
23,273 |
-1,569 |
92.9% |
| WA |
2,965,159 |
81,397 |
2.82% |
13,573 |
58,082 |
9,742 |
71.4% |
| Tas |
575,366 |
1,628 |
0.28% |
365 |
3,820 |
-2,557 |
234.6% |
| NT |
255,100 |
2,038 |
0.81% |
2,170 |
3,643 |
-3,775 |
178.8% |
| ACT |
474,132 |
7,773 |
1.67% |
2,800 |
6,523 |
-1,550 |
83.9% |
| Australia |
27,204,809 |
552,032 |
2.07% |
106,394 |
445,638 |
|
80.7% |
Source: ABS, National, State and Territory Population, June 2024
New South Wales grew by 1.72% for the year, with Overseas Migration making up almost 100% of that. The natural increase in NSW is almost exactly offset by interstate migration. Traditionally, NSW has the most interstate out-migration of any state, mainly to Queensland, though in 2023-24 this was a bit lower than the previous 3 years.
Victoria had the largest numerical growth and the second-highest percentage growth in 2023-24, adding 2.42%. Victoria's population fell during the COVID lockdown era, but it has now increased for 3 years straight. Interstate migration is now almost flat, with just a few more people arriving than leaving, and overseas migration of almost 133,000 for the year is still extremely high in historical terms. (Before 2022-23 overseas migration was never greater than 100,000.)
Queensland retains the mantle of the state getting most population growth from interstate migration, and had a growth rate overall of 2.30%, just below WA and Victoria. Because it gets more from interstate migration, Queensland had the smallest share of total population growth from overseas migration, at 59.5% (still more than half).
South Australia has returned to the trend of losing population to other states, after a blip of high interstate in-migration during COVID. Natural increase is very low due to an older population, and 92.9% of the total growth of 25,000 people is due to overseas migration, which remains high for the state.
Western Australia is the fastest growing state, adding 2.82% (81,397) population in 2023-24. Next year WA is likely to exceed 3 million people for the first time. WA has almost a "perfect storm" of positive natural increase, interstate in-migration and overseas migration. It had the second-lowest proportion of growth (71.4%) from overseas migration, but had the smallest drop in overseas migration for the last year, only falling from a record 66,000 in 2022-23 to 58,000 in 2023-24.
Tasmania has retained a high overseas migration of nearly 4,000 people in a state which historically has had very little overseas migration. However, this makes up less than 1% of the national total migration. The island state is once again losing significant numbers of population to the mainland (-2,557) and, with its relatively elderly population, has a very low rate of natural increase – just +365 people in 2023-24. It is likely to be the first state to experience a natural decrease in population (more deaths than births) in the next few years. This all contributed to the lowest growth rate for any state or territory: 0.28% in 2023-24, after a boom in population during COVID when the 2021 Census "found" an extra 25,000 people.
The Northern Territory had moderate population growth of 0.81%, just over 2,000 people in 2023-24, mainly driven by natural increase – with overseas migration offset by significant losses interstate. It remains the smallest population of the states and territories, with 255,100 people.
Canberra was the boom town at the last Census, with the Australian Capital Territory adding over 12% in the 5 years to 2021. It has come back to a strong but more moderate growth rate since, in 2023-24 this was 1.67% or just under 8,000 people. The ACT pushes on towards half a million though, and had strong natural increase and overseas migration, while interstate migration has turned negative following the NSW trend.
Looking forward
These new population estimates complete the 2023-24 financial year, but are subject to future review, particularly following the next Census in 2026, when all the previous 5 years' numbers will be revised. The national and state population figures don't go into the .id toolkit (profile.id, economy.id) until we have new local numbers as well, as they are used as benchmarks in a local context. The local government and smaller areas population estimates for the same time period are due out on March 27th, 2025, and we will have these on the .id sites soon after that, for all LGAs, suburbs and small areas on the community profile, with benchmarks to the updated state and larger estimates.
