Are more people moving to Australia?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its latest population summary for Australian States and Territories in their publication Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0) for the December Quarter 2012.
Let’s take a look at the latest migration data:
Overseas Migration
Overseas migration is up again. Net overseas migration for Australia has been estimated at 219,000 for 2011-12, up from 180,400 in the previous year. Data for the second half of 2012 suggests that overseas migration could increase further in the 2012-13 year, with the 6 month period to December 30 2012 showing a 17% increase on the same period in 2011. This is an interesting development given the political pressure to reduce overseas migration due to the fear of rising unemployment and the hubbub over the 457 Visa program.
It is also a pleasing vindication of our overseas migration assumptions for the SAFI (Small Area Forecast Information) project. We have used an assumption of a net gain of 200,000 persons from overseas migration for our current iteration of these forecasts. The consensus amongst pundits was to assume 180,000 per annum, which is looking like a highly conservative figure in the short term at this point.
The share of overseas migration going to Western Australia has grown substantially from 14.8% in 2009-10 to 22.1% in 2011-12. During this period, the share of overseas migration to New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia has fallen, while the share to Queensland has recovered from the low of 2009-10.
Interstate Migration
The ABS estimates that interstate migration has changed significantly with Queensland recovering some of its gains and New South Wales losing more population to the Sunshine State. Western Australia has also gained substantial numbers of people in net terms from other States. Its net interstate migration gain has been unprecedented. However, there are signs that the numbers to Western Australia may have peaked. The two quarters to December 2012 show lower numbers than the two quarters to December from 2011.
Population forecast
If you’d like to know more about the population of your local area and how it will change in the future, you can view any of .id’s population forecasts at our online demographic resource centre. To learn more about how the forecasts can help provide an evidence base for long term planning, please access the forecast.id page on our website.
Matthew - Team Forecast
Matthew is at the forefront of land, housing and population forecasting in Australia. As the developer of .id’s forecasting models and an author of .id’s e-books, he is a sought-after and entertaining presenter, and an inspiring consultant. He provides comprehensive insights into the migration, housing and land use changes that drive population and age structure change at the neighbourhood level. Matthew has had a profound influence on .id’s thinking about how we understand cities and regions. Matthew is currently heading a team developing micro-geography forecasts for the whole of Australia.
