What’s happening with population growth in Australia?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its latest population summary for Australian States and Territories in their publication Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0) for the December Quarter 2012. This is an important release as it contains the final estimates of population for States and Territories for June 30 2011, as well as the most up to date information on population change.
The figures for June 30 2011 are most notable. They are the ‘final-say’ for 2011 in this census cycle and they play a crucial role in our population forecasting program as they form the final base data for 2011.
There was a considerable change in the estimate of population between the 2006 based figures and the first edition of the 2011 Census-based figures (preliminary). The recent updates have been far more modest with generally a minor increase in most States and Territories, with the exception of Northern Territory. See below:
Source: ABS, Regional population growth (Cat No 3101.0), various releases
The reason for the significant differences at 2011 comparing the 2006 based estimates with the first-stage census-base estimates relates to the revised ‘undercount’ methodology which ABS employed for the 2011 Census. This is meant to more accurately deal with the problems of people not filling in census forms and those who are counted multiple times due to their absence from home on Census night. The result of this assessment is to find that the population was being considerably overestimated in net terms.
What’s next?
The ABS will be releasing their rebased sub-state ERPs (Estimated Resident Population) for the previous 3 Census periods on the 30th of August. This comes after the tumult caused by the revised undercount method. The data will provide us with the much needed historical time-series which has been broken by the change in methodology that ABS has employed.
The data will feed into our population forecasts and give us a better basis for decision-making.
Access our demographic resource centre for the latest population figures and forecasts for Australia. You may also wish to sign up to our newsletter and blog to receive the latest population and demographic updates. Visit our website at www.id.com.au for more Census and population information.
Matthew - Team Forecast
Matthew is at the forefront of land, housing and population forecasting in Australia. As the developer of .id’s forecasting models and an author of .id’s e-books, he is a sought-after and entertaining presenter, and an inspiring consultant. He provides comprehensive insights into the migration, housing and land use changes that drive population and age structure change at the neighbourhood level. Matthew has had a profound influence on .id’s thinking about how we understand cities and regions. Matthew is currently heading a team developing micro-geography forecasts for the whole of Australia.
