With the latest 2022 release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing, and Carers comes a significant change in the Nation's disability outlook. As our population evolves, both in age and size, so too must the supply of disability services to cater for that change in demand. In today's blog, Ben outlines Australia's disability profile and how it has changed overtime, what that change means for all levels of service provision, and how we leverage our forecast methodology to accurately and robustly model the future need for assistance and disability prevalence in your LGA.
About a decade ago, our census expert Glenn Capuano, wrote a blog detailing the Disability Forecast Modelling we undertook for the City of Wyndham along with the Survey of Disability, Ageing, and Carers (SDAC) we source our base data (forecast starting year information) from. Glenn found that while suburbs developed in the 70s and 80s were ageing rapidly, had the highest disability prevalence, and had a current need for service assistance, the City of Wyndham was (and still is) growing significantly, led by young family-aged groups with low propensities for disabilities in 2014, but were forecasted to have a much higher propensity now, ten years later.
Since that blog was published, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released three more iterations of the SDAC, with the 2022 results released earlier this month indicating a significant change in the Nation’s disability outlook.
In 2022, 5.5 million Australians had a disability, or 21.4% of the total population, up from 18.5% in 2018.
In 2022, Over half (52.3%) of all Australians aged over 65 had a disability compared to only 15% of those aged 0-64.
The 2022 SDAC results show an increase in disability prevalence for all ages below 70 years of age, where prevalence begins to level with previous years thereafter. The most common types of disability, such as arthritis, asthma, and back problems, all remained similar to 2018 levels. However, there has been a noticeable increase in behavioural, cognitive, and emotional conditions such as ADHD and anxiety disorder. There has also been a 42% increase in those with autism since 2018, or about 90,000 people.
Increases across disability types and age groups could indicate an increased awareness of disabilities, a genuine increase in disability prevalence across age groups, a change in survey methodology (the ABS conducted a digital version of this survey for the first time in 2022), an increasing life expectancy, and thus an ageing population.
What does this mean for service providers?
The number of people reported having a disability has increased over time and will continue to do so as our population ages. Not only this, but our young people are also becoming more aware of their disabilities, mild or severe, and better understand their requirements. Geographically, some communities will experience an increase in disability more than others, even within the same LGA, depending on population growth and the communities' age structure.
As such, at the federal level, state government, health authority, and local government level, what are the most significant challenges for a society with an increasing disability prevalence and an ageing population?
Funding – Ensure appropriate funding for support programs and services for people with disabilities. Federal and state governments must ensure appropriate budgeting for the growing demand for disability support services and safer, functional, and more impactful infrastructure.
Accessibility – Improving the accessibility of buildings, transport, and services is becoming increasingly essential. Local governments can enforce appropriate building standards to meet these needs in development applications.
Resourcing – Appropriately servicing the future needs of specific disability types and severities. Health authorities must ensure appropriate knowledge, staffing, and readiness to improve health outcomes and equity across the population.
Employment and education – All levels of government must be leaders and create policies and programs to improve employment and educational opportunities for those with disabilities. This could include workplace accommodation and inclusive educational practices such as tailored environment adjustments.
Community inclusion – Both structurally and socially. All levels of government can foster inclusive environments through awareness, education, and practice.
Housing – There is an increasing need for cared accommodation (hospitals, residential aged care, cared components of retirement villages, aged care hostels, psychiatric institutions, group homes, etc.) along with affordable housing (only 0.3% of rental properties are affordable to single persons reported to receive a Disability Support Pension (DSP) in 2021) for those with a disability (AIHW). Legislating appropriate housing types and ensuring accountability that they are built, providing incentives for developers to build appropriate housing, opening investment options to fund appropriate housing, and budgeting appropriately for state-level care services can help improve housing outcomes for those with disabilities.
How we can help
Since the introduction of the SDAC, .id has been helping service providers model the likely future for disability services across Australia. By using the demographic attributes of the survey information and the data from our National Forecasting Program, we can forecast the likely need for assistance across age groups and sex for every LGA in Australia.
On top of this, by combining the prevalence of disability types by age from the SDAC with our national forecasting model information we can help you determine which types of disability are most prevalent in your area, what the socio-demographic profile of each disability is, and what the likely future prevalence of each disability will be from now to 2046.
Using local data to establish a firm evidence-base
As we frequently mention in our blogs, making local decisions requires local data. Servicing future demand, particularly for our residents with specific needs, requires a proven methodology coupled with robust, detailed, and current population forecasts for your catchment. Together, service providers can have confidence in making an informed decision for their community.
If you want to learn more about how we model future disability demand and how that information can guide your community's service provision, advocacy efforts, and appropriate service or infrastructure investment, contact us.
For more information on our disability forecast methodology, read a case study here.
