Will the kids ever leave home?
One of the funny things about doing population forecasting is the response you get from clients about certain issues. One such issue that cuts close to the bone is this vexed issue of when will the children leave home?
Share of population aged 25-29 by relationship in household, 2006, selected locations
Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing
This issue seems to be less problematic for country people. The young people finish school and tend to do one of two things. They leave the area to study or work in the big smoke or maybe a regional centre. Alternatively, they stay in the local area, get a job (where possible!) and get on with their lives. This means saying bye to mum and dad and behaving like an adult.
Now, this concept is positively frightening for those of you, like me, who grew up in one of the endless comfortable and relaxed suburbs in the capital cities of Australia. It’s so conveniently close to university and TAFE, close to banal casual jobs in the retail sector and mum (or dad? not likely) will do your washing. No scary decisions to be made, no major financial outlays, no need to make any extraordinary commitment – perfect for an arts / humanities student. “I’ll think about that stuff later when I have to.” See below.
I was walking past a house near where I live, where a concerned mother and a twenty something year old daughter were discussing engine troubles. Clearly, the car was going nowhere. The daughter turned to her mother and said “What are you going to do about my car?”
There are few solutions to this problem. Some possibilities include:
- Funding your child’s overseas trip and hope they sort it out while they are away
- Sell your home from underneath your children – a little drastic
- Become friends with your children on Facebook and continually embarrass them until you can strike up a deal to get them out!
Even if you can get them to leave, there’s no guarantee they won’t be back…
.id is a team of demographers, population forecasters, spatial planners, urban economists, and data experts who use a unique combination of online tools and consulting to help governments and organisations understand their local areas. Access our free demographic resources here
Matthew - Team Forecast
Matthew is at the forefront of land, housing and population forecasting in Australia. As the developer of .id’s forecasting models and an author of .id’s e-books, he is a sought-after and entertaining presenter, and an inspiring consultant. He provides comprehensive insights into the migration, housing and land use changes that drive population and age structure change at the neighbourhood level. Matthew has had a profound influence on .id’s thinking about how we understand cities and regions. Matthew is currently heading a team developing micro-geography forecasts for the whole of Australia.
