Australia’s changing ethnicity: A preview of the 2016 Census?

One of the great things about Census data is that it provides real insights into how communities are changing. There is simply no other data source in Australia that provides such rich insights. In the lead up to the release of the 2016 data, many people who work with the data are keen to see how things have changed since 2011 – after all, five years is a long time in the world of demographics!

However, there are ways to glean insights between each Census release. Delving deeper into the huge array of ABS demographic releases, you’ll find more recent data on social indicators such as birthplace.

For example, the recent release of Migration Australia (Cat. no. 3412.0) by the ABS provides more recent data on birthplace communities, as measured by the Estimated Resident Population (ERP) at June 2016. This provides a preview as to what changes we might see when the 2016 Census data is released.

One standout trend is the increasing proportion of our population that were born overseas. In the 1996 Census, 23.3% of the population were born overseas. By 2016, this had increased to 28.4%. This trend is largely attributable to the large increases in net overseas migration to Australia, primarily since 2006.

So what else does this ERP data tell us about what may be contained in the 2016 Census?

Italian and Greek-born communities are shrinking – rapidly

The table below shows the top ten birthplaces in Australia in 1996 and 2016. While Australia, England and New Zealand remain the top three birthplaces, clearly there has been a significant change amongst the major birthplace communities in Australia. Of particular note is the decline in the number of Italian and Greek persons.

Of particular note is the decline in the number of Italian and Greek persons. We’ve blogged about this previously, and understand this change has occurred due to the ageing of these communities.

Migrants from these communities that originally came to Australia in the 1950s and 1960s are now much older, and mortality is taking hold, or they are returning “home”. In 1996, Italy was the fourth major birthplace community with a population of over 250,000, but by 2016 had dropped to eighth, with a population of just under 195,000. This represents a decline of 22% over the twenty years.

While there has been some migration of younger Italians to Australia since 1996, the numbers are not replacing those who are either dying or leaving. The Greek-born population is declining for similar reasons, but by 2016 had dropped out of the top ten. Of course, birthplace is just one measure of ethnicity and the numbers claiming Italian or Greek ancestry increased between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses, and it would be expected that this trend will continue once the 2016 Census data is available. This is a clear indication of the legacy of the major wave of European migration of the mid 20th century.

^{* excludes SARs and Taiwan
Source: ABS, Migration, Australia (Cat. no. 3412.0)}

On the other hand, the last twenty years has seen a massive increase in the population born in both China and India. China is now the most populous non-English speaking birthplace country in Australia (fourth-ranked overall), with a population of over 526,000 – a more than fourfold increase since 1996.

India wasn’t even ranked in the top ten in 1996 but is now the fifth most populous birthplace country. In 1996, the Indian-born population was just 80,470, but had increased to almost 470,000 in 2016 – an almost six-fold increase in just 20 years. At the same time, the number of people born in the Philippines, South Africa, or Malaysia doubled between 1996 and 2016, and the New Zealand-born population almost doubled.

Emerging birthplace communities in Australia

Of course looking at the top ten birthplace communities only tells part of the story. At .id, emerging communities refer to those that are increasing in number, providing an indication as to what services might be required in the future. The table below shows the major emerging birthplace communities in Australia between 1996 and 2016. Notably, there is a predominance of Asian countries in these emerging communities, which reflects the greater ties – both socially and economically – between Australia and Asia over the last twenty years.

^{* excludes SARs and Taiwan
Source: ABS, Migration, Australia (Cat. no. 3412.0)}

A notable emerging birthplace community outside the top ten is the Nepalese-born. In 1996, it was a very small community numbering less than 1,500 across Australia, but this had increased to over 50,000 in 2016. The Nepalese-born community started to increase after 2007, and it has doubled in size since 2009. Ongoing political and social tensions in Nepal have resulted in outbound migration from that country (including some refugees).

Finally, it is also worth presenting some evidence with regard to the size of the Syrian community in Australia. In 1996, this birthplace community numbered some 6,620 persons, and this had increased to 15,600 at 2016. While this represents a doubling of the population over the twenty years, it has been a steady increase over that time as opposed to a refugee intake since the beginning of the civil war in that country.

Estimated Resident Population vs Census data

The data shown here is based on the ERP data and therefore the numbers will differ to what will be revealed once the 2016 Census data is released. However, it does provide an indication of the scale of increase – or decline – of the various birthplace communities in Australia.

The power of the Census data is that it will reveal concentrations of these populations at smaller levels of geography, and therefore can be used with confidence when planning services.

Using Nepal as an example, approximately 60% of that birthplace community live in New South Wales. More specifically, .id’s social atlas tool shows there is a significant concentration of Nepalese-born persons in the suburbs of Rockdale and Kogarah.

At least that was the story in 2011. Is there still a high-density of Nepalese-born people in these suburbs? All will be revealed after June 27th – so stay tuned!

.id is a team of demographers, urban economists, spatial planners and Census data experts who use a unique combination of online tools and consulting to help governments and organisations plan for the future. Access our free demographic resources here.