Who will win the race to be Australia’s number 1 capital city?
While many in Melbourne already view their city as the cultural capital of Australia, Sydney still reigns in terms of population as Australia’s largest capital city, with .id estimating a population of 5.07 million people in 2017. In the population stakes, Melbourne has been sitting patiently in second place with 4.86 million people as of 2017.
The unprecedented rate of population growth being experienced in Melbourne is set to change the balance of Australia’s largest cities, de-throning Sydney from the podium as the nation’s most populous capital city. The runner-up Melbourne won’t pip the reigning champion, Sydney, right away but .id’s latest population forecasts show a change in leader is in the not too distant future.
Recently updated Small Area Forecast information (SAFi) for Victoria forecasts that Melbourne will overtake Sydney by 2023, when Melbourne’s population is anticipated to top 5.53 million, exceeding Sydney’s expected population of 5.51 million.
“/>
The race winner continues to lead in the longer-term, with the gap forecast to widen by 2037 as Melbourne adds more than half a million more people than Sydney.
Forecast population, Melbourne and Sydney, 2017-41
Sources: .id (the population experts), SAFi Victoria, 2017, SAFi NSW, 2016
Like any good demographic analysis, geographic borders are central to the insight. In this case, the geographic definition of the greater capital city area is important. This analysis uses the Australian Bureau of Statistics official greater capital cities statistical area (GCCSA) geographic definition of metropolitan Melbourne and metropolitan Sydney. The 2016 GCCSA definition of metropolitan Melbourne excludes Geelong and metropolitan Sydney includes the Central Coast. Do people who live in Gosford and Wyong consider themselves Sydney-siders? Are people in Bacchus Marsh and Lancefield happy to be called Melburnians?
It should also be noted that .id’s latest SAFi forecasts for Victoria include information from the 2016 Australian Census, as well as a comprehensive assessment of housing development and supply. SAFi forecasts for NSW were updated and published most recently in 2016, and do not include 2016 Census results. There is a good chance that when the 2016 Census results and an updated assessment of housing development and supply are incorporated into the next update of SAFi NSW, the story may change. Stay tuned to find out more.
“/>
.id is a team of demographers, population forecasters, spatial planners, urban economists, IT and data experts who use a unique combination of online information applications and consulting services to help governments and organisations understand people and places for evidence-based planning.
Thanks for the interesting blog post Matthew. I note that in the graph above that Greater Melbourne will match Greater Sydney in 2022 but I read in ABS forecasts that this will currently be around 2037. Are you able to check that? I was also wondering though why the ABS would include Central Coast as part of the Greater Sydney metro area, but not include Wollongong which is actually physically closer and with a similar percentage of workers commuting to Sydney as well? I asked this question in another post but that didn’t get a response so thought I would raise it here.
Hi Alex, This ‘race’ is obviously a complicated one. Where you draw the boundary of the Metropolitan Areas is extremely problematic and for competitive and marketing reasons, quite important. When the ABS moved to the new geographic standard in 2011 (the ASGS), Greater Melbourne was extended to include parts of Moorabool, the Macedon Ranges and Mitchell Shires. Many of these areas have been economically dependant on Melbourne for growth for decades. Meanwhile, Greater Sydney remained the same (Central Coast included). For at least a couple of years now, Greater Melbourne would already be larger than Sydney without the Central Coast.
The basis for inclusion into the Metropolitan area is usually based on its economic connectivity / dependence. I would say that Wollongong is functionally still a separate place to Sydney. The data from the Census shows that about two-thirds of Wollongong residents work in the City of Wollongong and about 75% somewhere in the Illawarra, although I know that places like Helensburgh and northern suburbs of Wollongong like Bulli are much more interconnected. In the Central Coast, the numbers are actually quite similar, with 68.4% of the population working in the area. This certainly lends weight to your argument that it should not be counted as part of Sydney. Only 42.7% of Blue Mountains residents work in the City, with just on half working somewhere in Metro Sydney. So perhaps we should suggest that the Central Coast should become part of ‘regional NSW’.
If we assume the boundaries are set as they are, what are the current growth prospects of both cities. We are still waiting to update our NSW forecasts and most likely Sydney will increase in numbers as a result of the review. If you look at the last decade, Melbourne has cut the difference in population from just on half a million to only 281,000 in 2017. If the growth rates were similar for the next decade, Melbourne would exceed Sydney by around 2026. This would be about consistent with how I would expect our NSW /Sydney forecasts to change when reviewed.
Cheers Matthew