Australian population growth trends in 2012

The ABS recently released their small area population estimates for the year ended June 2012. This is the first insight into population change at smaller areas of geography since the 2011 Census. In their analysis, the ABS has moved towards looking at population change at SA2 or SA3 level. But the publication Regional Population Growth (ABS Cat. no 3218.0) contains a wealth of information on population change for LGAs. What are some of the highlights from this ABS release?

Key points at the national level

• all States and Territories recorded population growth in 2011-2012. This ranged from a massive 3.3% in Western Australia, to just 0.2% in Tasmania
• the volume of growth in Western Australia almost eclipsed that of NSW (78,037 and 78,877 respectively)
• Victoria recorded the highest volume of growth (88,966 persons)
• the fastest growing LGA in the country is Serpentine-Jarrahdale on the south eastern outskirts of Perth (8.0%). Due to its size, Brisbane City Council once again recorded the largest volume of growth (19,921 persons).
• the Australian population reached almost 22.7 million persons at the end of June 2012. We do know since then that the ABS population clock has reached the 23 million mark.

NSW

Population growth in NSW shows an interesting divergence depending on whether you look at rates or volumes of growth. In terms of volume, the bulk of growth continues to occur on the metropolitan fringe, particularly in the north west. Blacktown once again recorded the highest volume of growth in NSW, but it is also a very large LGA with a population over 300,000. In terms of percentage growth, Camden (3.6%) and Auburn (3.5%) stood out amongst NSW LGAs. Two non-metropolitan LGAs appeared in the top five – Maitland (2.7%) and Yass Valley (2.3%). Maitland’s increased population is a return to the rates recorded in the first half of the 2000s which reflects its proximity to Newcastle, but possibly housing opportunities arising from the mining boom further up the Hunter Valley.

Victoria

Patterns of population change in Victoria reflect the status quo of recent years with very strong growth recorded on the metropolitan fringe and in the CBD and surrounds. Once again, Wyndham takes the prize for the highest rate (7.6%) and volume of growth (12,649 persons). Growth in Whittlesea has increased significantly in the last few years as more housing opportunities are made available in the northern growth corridor. While Melton continues to grow strongly, it is not at the very high levels recorded a few years ago.

Queensland

The sheer size of the largest LGAs in Queensland makes analysis more challenging – I mean the fact that Brisbane City Council has a population over 1 million provides the momentum for a large volume of growth. Same with the Gold Coast, though it is interesting that Wyndham had a higher volume of growth, which reflects the slight downturn in the rate of growth on the Gold Coast in more recent years. Rates of growth were highest in non-metropolitan Queensland, particularly in areas with mining activity near large regional centres. The highest rate was recorded in Central Highlands (3.4%), located inland from Rockhampton, which itself recorded strong growth (2.7%).

South Australia

The Adelaide metropolitan area continues to expand to the north and south, as well as in the centre, with the highest rate of growth recorded in Adelaide (3.0%). Alexandrina and Mount Barker, located on the other side of the Mount Lofty ranges, continued their trend of higher than average population growth. An interesting inclusion in the top five was Copper Coast, which is located in the northern part of the Yorke Peninsula around the towns of Wallaroo and Kadina. The amenity of the region, coupled with its relative accessibility to Adelaide (within 2 hours drive) means that it has growth drivers similar to other coastal areas close to major metropolitan regions eg weekenders, retirees.

Western Australia

Like Victoria, rates of and volumes of growth in Western Australia are very high. The southern suburbs of Perth are growing strongly, and stretching into peri-urban areas such as Serpentine-Jarrahdale, which as mentioned above, recorded the highest rate of growth in the country. However LGAs in northern Perth recorded the highest volume of growth, most notably Wanneroo and Stirling.
Highlights from other States and Territories

• As noted above, Tasmania recorded very modest growth in 2011-12 but of course patterns of growth varied widely across the State. The fastest growing LGA was Latrobe (2.5%), located on the north coast, but one other LGA recorded growth above 1.0% – Kingborough (1.1%), incorporating parts of southern Hobart and beyond. Kingborough also recorded the highest volume of growth (384 persons).
• in the Northern Territory, Palmerston was the standout LGA in terms of rate and volume of growth (4.1%, 1,210 persons). This is a satellite town located south of Darwin with greenfield estates popular with young families.

Population estimates from this ABS release will soon be made available on profile.id, which will provide a time series going back to 2001.

Find the latest population estimates for local government areas in our community profiles which you can access via the demographic resource centre.