Which parts of Australia are growing through internal migration

Internal migration’ is the forgotten component of population change. In this, the third and final part in his three-part series on the components of population change, Glenn looks at the places in Australia that are most affected by people moving to (or coming from) other parts of the country.

Map: see the components of population change in your area

The map below shows how the different components of migration for every LGA in Australia.

^{Search for your place, click the map + scroll to zoom in/out or click and drag to move the map}

What is Internal Migration?

Net Internal Migration (NIM) is the 3rd component of population growth or decline.

It’s often forgotten – when I was interviewed about the 2018 ERP on the radio recently, the interviewer asked about “growth by babies” (natural increase) and “people flying in from overseas” (Net Overseas Migration, or NOM) – but people often don’t think of inter-state or inter-regional migration.

But for many areas, this is the strongest contributor to growth.

Think of areas like the fringes of our cities, with new housing estates. People move into these places predominantly from other parts of Australia – moving from renting, to buying their first home, for instance.

It’s also important for declining areas. Some areas are declining simply because people are moving out. Rural areas often lose young people who move to the cities for education and work. Large parts of Western Australia have also lost population in the last few years due to workers moving back east after the end of the mining/construction boom.

Internal migration is unique – unlike the other two components of population growth, it must add up to zero Australia-wide. Every movement ‘in’ somewhere is matched by a movement ‘out’ somewhere else. Both natural increase and overseas migration can be net positive for the country.

The LGAs with the highest net internal migration in 2017-18

Queensland and Victoria dominate this list – areas on the fringes of Brisbane and other parts of SE Queensland, with large LGAs and lots of new housing in there. And areas on the fringes of Melbourne with large growth coming from people relocating from suburbs closer to the city, seeking more affordable housing still within the capital city labour market. Only one area in any other state makes the top 10, Camden in NSW, which happens to be the fastest growing LGA nationally.

Also, have a look at the percentages. These areas all have internal migration as their largest component of growth (with the minor exception of Hume).

Camden and the Sunshine Coast each have about three-quarters of their total growth from internal migration – these are areas which attract a lot of migration out from Sydney and Brisbane respectively, but have relatively low cultural diversity and not a lot of direct overseas migrants (though, increasingly, secondary overseas-migration, with migrants moving out for the larger, more affordable housing).

Also of interest is the regional area of Greater Geelong – Geelong is getting a lot of migration from Melbourne now, also driven by more affordable housing and economic growth there.

More than the other components of population change, Internal Migration shows quite large numbers in its components. All the areas in the top 10 have large movement both in and out, but more movement in. In fact, there are many areas which have big population churn, but close to zero Net Internal Migration, because about the same number of people move in as out.

Notably, Ku-ring-gai, NSW (also one of the highest socio-economic areas in the nation) had 8,831 people move in, and 8,826 people move out, for a net growth of 5. And Onkaparinga, South Australia, had 8,448 move in and 8,469 move out, for a net loss of 21.

The LGAs whose growth is most affected by Internal Migration in 2017/18

The areas in the above list are those where internal migration makes up a large share of population growth, but they are not the largest. The following table shows those where internal migration makes up the greatest percentage of their growth (I’ve excluded very small LGAs with less than 100 going either way).

These areas are primarily coastal retirement areas – so their in-migration is making up for the declining natural increase I talked about in my other article. For that reason, NIM makes up more than 100% of their total growth – they have negative natural growth and relatively low overseas migration.

The LGAs losing population to Internal Migration

Finally, what about areas that have negative Net Internal Migration?

These areas are losing population within Australia.

These areas all have a lot of people moving out within Australia (they also have many moving in, but more are moving out).

Mainly they comprise middle-suburban areas with established older housing, where housing costs have escalated in recent years. People are leaving these areas seeking newer, larger or more affordable housing – particularly families with children – who tend to move to those areas on the urban fringe which have high in-migration.

Most of the areas listed here also have very high rates of overseas migration – so they are first ports of call for migrants, who then move out after a few years. The top 2, Canterbury-Bankstown in Sydney and Monash in Melbourne are typical of this. So are Cumberland, Brimbank, Greater Dandenong, George’s River and Fairfield. Stirling has the same role and function in metropolitan Perth.

The exception on this list is Darwin, which had a declining population in 2018. While partly it does have a similar function in that people are moving out to places like Palmerston and Litchfield in outer suburban Darwin, it is also losing population due to the end of major employment projects in the area.

Remember that .id’s population forecasts look at the components of population change that we predict for your area, and how these will change in the future. Internal migration and overseas migration are combined in forecast.id to give a total for all migration in and out of the area (generally, areas which are growing their housing stock will have high migration in).

You can also check out where your area is gaining migrants from, or losing population to, over a 5 year period, in our community profiles. Find a community profile for your area here, then look under the “Migration profile” heading.