The PM’s population policy: a NOM event

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3 Responses

  1. Henry says:

    This is a confusing article in a number of places, particularly when the author says:

    “Net overseas migration from ‘Visitors’ accounted for 22% of total NOM in 2017, but as they’re mostly here for less than 12 months, they’re not counted toward population”

    If someone is counted in NOM, then by definition, they are counted in the population, or ERP (as ERP = NOM + natural increase). This is outlined quite clearly in the ABS demography series.

    The “Visitors” currently defined in the 3412.0 ABS Migration series is explained by the following. The ABS only tracks a persons first visa and not any transition after arrival. So when a person turns up on a tourist/visitor visa but then moves to a student, work or family visa, they show up in the NOM and population statistics as a ‘visitor’. Currently, there are longer waiting periods for various visas, which is driving this phenomenon of additional ‘visitors’ in the population.

  2. Fairfax have picked up on the issue today, querying the increase in NOM in light of the highly publicised official reduction in intake. They are also querying a higher birth rate forecast in there

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