In the previous blog I looked at where the oldest median ages were in Australia. This article looks at the most youthful areas.
Do you want to know how long you’ve got left? Ask a statistician!
Every year the ABS publishes Deaths Australia (3302.0), which gives all the grizzly details of how many people have died in the last year and what the death rates are. Actually Causes of Death (3303.0) is a much more macabre read if you are in the mood for that….But at the same time as the deaths publication, they publish a lesser known table, known as Life Tables, Australia. And these are the tables that tell you how just how long you can expect to survive…
Here at .id we deal with a huge quantity of numbers, so its hard for us to imagine a society where numbers don’t exist. But there is one …
In the construction industry, the Canterbury rebuild and Auckland’s housing shortage have been dominating media stories for some time. Much is made of Stats NZ’s monthly building consent figures. Building Consents statistics are used in both the public and private sectors as a leading indicator of the general level of residential development, economic activity, employment and investment.
All areas need some capacity for industry to grow and change, but the focus of areas can be quite different. Many places have a particular industry that they are known for, or specialise in, and which may be their main export, while they may also have a range of industries which mainly support the local population. An area which is predominantly a dormitory suburb may only have those locally focused service industries. economy.id can help you understand which of your industries provide the vital export dollars for your economy, and which ones to try to develop in the future.
How did the population forecasters of last century think that Australia’s population would change and grow?
People love extremes – particularly in the statistical sense. I’m often getting asked “What’s the oldest/youngest/highest income/lowest income/most educated/least educated/largest families/smallest families…place in Australia?”. .id’s profiles are fantastic at looking at the characteristics of an area against a wider benchmark, but everyone also wants to know where their area sits in the continuum of the nation.
So this is the start of a series of short articles looking at the extremes of characteristics in Australia. To start with – age!
Australia’s sporting teams may not be doing too well internationally at the moment, but in terms of births data we are breaking all sorts of records. Two weeks ago the ABS quietly released its annual publication on births in Australia. As I’ve blogged previously, it’s important for .id’s forecast team because it gives us up to date data regarding numbers of births for each council, as well as fertility rates. What are some of the highlights from this year’s release? Read the rest of this entry
Sunshine Coast Council recently released its Economic Development Strategy, and to keep track of the progress towards their economic development goals they selected economy.id, the online economic profile from .id.
Conducted in conjunction with the University of the Sunshine Coast, the selection process included a detailed analysis of competing products and services. Economy.id was ultimately chosen for its ease of use, and the relevance and accuracy of the NIEIR modelled data.
Data from the 2013 Census for New Zealand is starting to roll out of Stats NZ (the kiwi ABS). This blog is for our Australian readers with an interest in New Zealand. It’s a quick update of recently released information on usual resident population (URP) counts.
The current bushfire situation in eastern NSW is horrendous, and we wish the affected communities all the best. Serious fires happen every few years in Australia. Tasmania had major fires in January this year, while Victoria’s Black Saturday fires in 2009 were the most devastating in Australian history for loss of life. The current fires in NSW are unusual in that they are happening so early in the season, because it has been so dry there over the late winter/spring period.
There are many discussions to be had about living in fire-prone areas of Australia (which is most of the populated areas around the fringes of our cities), but I thought it would be interesting from a demographic perspective to look at what types of people and households live in the most fire prone areas.
It seems that 30-odd years ago, the monorail was being touted as the solution to urban transport, especially in cities.
Monorails popped up around the globe, including Sydney and the Gold Coast. One of the benefits of the monorail was its ability to be built around existing infrastructure, by constructing the rail above existing streets, but it was hampered by a lack of passenger capacity.
On a recent trip to Queensland I was lucky enough to be flying on a clear day, which allows demographic nerds like myself to get a birdseye view of the towns, cities and countryside below. I’m a big fan of the window seat simply so that I can try to pick out the various features 35,000 feet below - I figure I need something to do to wile away the time! Flying to the Sunshine Coast from Melbourne, you tend to go straight over the Gold Coast and out to sea, before heading back to the coast just north of Maroochydore where the Sunshine Coast airport is located. This meant I got a great view of the urban conglomerate referred to as South East Queensland (SEQ) – that stretch of coastline from the NSW-Queensland border heading north to include Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast. It’s been referred to as the 200 kilometre city and is often cited as one of the fastest growing regions in the country. Given the recent release of the revised/recast/revamped/recalibrated ERPs by the ABS, let’s have a look at the most recent population trends in this part of Australia.
Birth rates, death rates, crime rates, home ownership rates, you get the idea, rates are everywhere! In this blog I explore the calculation of crime rates … and the impact of the revisions of the official population count on these …
Economy.id has now been completely redeveloped with a raft of new functions and features.
Each section of economy.id provides information in data tables and graphs with detailed explanations and data sources.
Data is presented in context, using both time series and benchmarks to other areas to highlight growth trends or declining characteristics and to clearly pinpoint areas of relative advantage.
All tables are exportable to Excel in .csv format and all charts are exportable directly to Word as a .jpg image.
Some functions, such as journey to work by industry and work destination profiles use interactive maps as well as tables to convey the information most clearly.
I recently ran a training session at the City of Bankstown, in Sydney’s south-west. This is a fascinating area, demographically. It is one of the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 55% of the population speaking a language other than English at home (particularly Arabic and Vietnamese), and some of the lowest socio-economic areas in Sydney. It is also a tale of two cities, bisected by the M5, with well off areas of predominantly Australian-born population to the south, and mainly overseas-born lower income households in the north. Bankstown are keen users of atlas.id to look at the spatial differences within the LGA.
We’ve all read about it. A glut/oversupply/huge peak of apartments coming through in Melbourne. Is it happening? Where is it happening?
There is a theory that, when selecting a man as a long term relationship proposition, women are more likely to look for status and income, and men are more likely to go for looks and youth. While certainly controversial, this theory is based on sound evolutionary principles, and its proponents will often point to 25 year old models marrying geriatric millionaires as proof in the extreme cases. But the plural of anecdote is not evidence, and in the age of gender equality, women in the workforce being the norm, and in many cases earning more than their partners, is there still any truth to it? What does the Census data say?
In the debate about future urban growth, land use zoning has an important role as a policy tool that can assist in achieving desirable outcomes; however, zoning should be much more flexible and less prescriptive. Currently, in our growth areas, land zoning encourages highly segregated land uses with very homogenous neighbourhoods, providing limited opportunity to diversify residential stock in the future. The prescriptive nature of many of these zones together with the difficulty involved in changing an area’s zoning seems designed to preserve the current urban environment in perpetuity, rather than recognising that areas will be required to change and adapt if they are to remain desirable places to live in the future.
They say Australia was built on the sheep’s back, but it’s well known that Agriculture has been a declining sector of the economy for quite a while. At least as far as employment is concerned. In terms of the value of what’s produced, it’s more productive than ever. Economy.id now lets you explore the importance of agriculture, and the value of different commodities produced in your area.
Adelaidians- do you remember riding the Ferris Wheel on top of Cox-Foys – in Rundle Street? (before Rundle Mall!)
Or shopping at Moore’s Department Store in Victoria square – which is now the location of the Law Courts?
Or Melburnians – do you remember the famous Southern Cross hotel, or the CRA high rise building – which was quite remarkable for its short 26 year lifespan?
The National Film and Sound Archive has some interesting short historical films that feature Australia’s Cities, and they are now available on You Tube.
Recently, we have added the “industry focus” section to economy.id. This highlights some extra datasets on specific industries which aren’t well represented in the rest of the site. They are not turned on by default, but are included where that industry is an important contributor to the economy of the area. The most recent addition to this section is the tourism module, which looks at the value and contribution of tourism and hospitality in your area, and the characteristics of workers in the industry.
In October 2012, Whanganui was named New Zealand’s first Smart21 Intelligent Community. Three Australian communities – Ballarat and Whittlesea in Victoria, and Prospect in South Australia were also in the top 21. Taichung City in Taiwan was named Intelligent Community of the Year in June 2013. So what has Whanganui, a district of around 40,000 people got in common with Taichung, a city with a population of 2.7 million? Possibly it’s an aspiration they share towards a more prosperous and inclusive future.
Well think again. In my myth busting way, here’s some things you may or may not know about Queensland’s population.
Last year I wrote a blog on age pyramids, and how significantly they can differ depending on the region and its role and function. This blog will take a similar tone, but look specifically at Queensland. The so-called Sunshine State is often perceived as having an elderly population, presumably based on its popularity as a retirement destination over several decades. However Queensland is one of Australia’s youngest states – it’s median age in 2012 was 36.6 years – well below Tasmania’s 40.8 years. Trends such as retirement migration have quite specific local outcomes and Queensland is a demographically diverse state. Using data primarily from the 1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses, let’s have a look at some of these trends as they play out in different regions.
Esther’s recent blog on dependency ratios got me thinking. We are moving towards a time when we will have far more non-working population as a proportion than ever before, particularly as the baby boomers age into their retirement years. This has been known for some time, and was the impetus behind the introduction of compulsory superannuation in the 1980s, so people would fund their own retirement and not be a drain on taxes in their older years. I distinctly remember, going through university in the early 1990s, being told “There won’t be a pension by the time you reach retirement age, so you’d better save as much money as you can now”. But we’re now 20 years on, and there seems to be no sign of the age pension being removed. Would any government really commit the political suicide of dropping or significantly winding back social security for the aged? Can demographics provide the answer?
Do you think your council is too small for a community profile? When .id first put profile.id together, we thought it would be useful for large metropolitan councils to look at differences between suburbs. It still is very useful for these councils, but more and more we’ve seen it taken up by smaller regional councils, who take advantage of the ease of finding information on their populations and comparing over time on consistent geographic boundaries, to make evidence based decisions and advocate for their communities.
And we are pleased to announce that we have just added our smallest community profile, Flinders Council, in the Furneaux Island group, Tasmania – population 802.
Guest blog by Dr Peter Brain, Executive Director of National Economics. (National Institute of Economic and Industry Research)
National Economics is the organisation that provides the modelled economic data for the council-level economy.id online economic profiles.
Much of the information produced about our working population (and reported in the media) relates to employment and unemployment rates.
But as the way in which we work changes, these measures are becoming less relevant and in fact in many cases, “mask” the real underlying story…
While we study populations, at .id we’re interested in all aspects of community life and how different communities organise certain aspects of their lives. While in Japan I’ve been watching the local food system, it’s a different system to our fresh food markets. Rather than the Australian system of large food producers, wholesale markets then retailers buying and selling to the public, the Japanese fresh food system is much more localized.
We recently had an .id office social trip to the flicks to see Human Scale, a documentary about cities and civic design which “questions our assumptions about modernity, exploring what happens when we put people into the center of our equations”. The doco featured five cities, including my home town, Christchurch, New Zealand. It was sad to be reminded of the turmoil following the earthquakes, and prompted me to look into the data available about how the population has changed since that time…
Recently we published a blog about population change in Melbourne for the twelve months ended June 2012 – this time it’s Sydney’s turn. As we’ve blogged previously, Sydney and Melbourne have very different patterns of growth. Does this still hold true in 2012?
The phenomenon of the fly-in/fly-out worker has been a growing trend in Australia for the lasts 10 years or so. With the massive expansion of mining in many remote areas, Australians have shown a preference not to live in the areas that the mining is actually happening, but to live in metropolitan areas and fly in for a shift lasting 1-2 weeks, then fly home again at the end. The building industry in these areas has struggled to build enough houses for those who do want to live there, so large temporary accommodation centres have sprung up to house the workers who don’t live there permanently, but maintain their home and family somewhere else. But how big is this phenomenon? Fortunately Census can shed some light, and economy.id and profile.id give plenty of info on this.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its latest population summary for Australian States and Territories in their publication Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0) for the December Quarter 2012. This is an important release as it contains the final estimates of population for States and Territories for June 30 2011, as well as the most up to date information on population change.
The figures for June 30 2011 are most notable. They are the ‘final-say’ for 2011 in this census cycle and they play a crucial role in our population forecasting program as they form the final base data for 2011.
One of the more visual aspects of urban and regional change in recent years has been the growth in construction of high rise apartments in the inner suburbs of Australian cities, particularly the CBD and surrounds. This phenomenon is most apparent in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, where the city skylines have been altered drastically in the last two decades. Many people, particularly young professional adults and overseas students, are choosing these kinds of dwellings by choice – they offer advantages of location with excellent proximity to jobs, education and services. Though all state capital cities have metropolitan planning strategies which emphasise the need to contain urban sprawl and densify existing suburbs, it is Sydney that has embraced this concept on a greater scale and in different ways to other state capitals.
This blog uses housing and dwelling data from the 2011 Census to look at some of the issues.
I know it’s boring, but some of the most useful information in the .id demographic tools is hidden away in a link at the bottom of each table. In profile.id, as well as having the exact wording of the Census question at the top right of each page, and beneath, the total population to which it refers, we include comprehensive data notes with each topic, to help you understand how to use it, where it comes from and how it’s put together.
I recently met with a group of local government clients in NSW and we were discussing how to measure the success of their economic development activity by tracking change in the number of local jobs each year.
When I made the statement that the census undercounts local (LGA) employment by up to 20 percent, they were shocked. “Was I sure about this?” They asked. “Does everyone know about this? What are we doing to make sure people in economic development know?”
Let me be clear, the census is an incredible source of knowledge about local communities. In most cases it is a very robust and reliable source of information. And five yearly updates are frequent enough for most analysis. But it does have its limitations. Read the rest of this entry
The .id gang went to the movies recently to check out Andreas Dalsgaard’s documentary The Human Scale, which looked at the work of Jan Gehl and his team of architects across ten cities including Copenhagen, New York, Dhaka and Melbourne and Christchurch.
Earlier this year the ABS released their 2012 population estimates for local government areas across Australia (Regional Population Growth, ABS Cat. no. 3218.0). This gives us the first glimpse into post 2011 Census population trends for smaller geographic levels. Australia continues to record high volumes of population growth, but what is happening locally? This blog will examine population growth trends in the Melbourne metropolitan area over the period 2011-12.
Who will be paying for your latte (or more likely, meals on wheels!) in your twilight years?
While I don’t have a crystal ball to tell you whether your super will be sufficient, understanding dependency ratios can give you an insight into the potential pressures the economy may face…
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its latest population summary for Australian States and Territories in their publication Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0) for the December Quarter 2012.
Let’s take a look at the latest migration data:
One of our staff members, Andrew, is currently on Vacation in Japan, and has sent this thought provoking blog…
I’m now in Japan, spending time with my family. I’m lucky enough to have the use of a spare car while here – it’s a “kei car” and with 2 adults and 2 kids we thought it may be a bit small.
Are we in 1957 or 2013?
On a recent trip to South Australia with my colleague and frequent blog contributor, Simone, I was fortunate enough to engage in two client meetings. The first was to “kick off” a forecast review for Adelaide City Council, and the second to present draft forecast numbers and assumptions to the District Council of Mount Barker. As we were flying into South Australia (for my first time), I could clearly see the connectivity of places from the coast and Noarlunga (City of Onkaparinga) via the Southern Expressway to Marion and northwards to Greater Adelaide.
The Australian dollar may be sinking like a stone, but the population continues to increase, with increased population growth, according to the latest demographic statistics from the ABS. We take a closer look at some interesting findings…
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its latest population summary for Australian States and Territories in their publication Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0) for the December Quarter 2012.
This is an important release as it contains the final estimates of population for States and Territories for June 30 2011, as well as the most up to date information on population change.
We’ll take a take a look at some of the interesting trends in this data in upcoming blogs – this first of which is growth in Perth vs Brisbane, which appears below:
Perth versus Brisbane
A comprehensive and wide-ranging update is underway for economy.id – and the first stages are now being made available to all profile.id clients to trial for the next twelve months.
‘Reform’ is one of the favourite words of the Australian Government lexicon. Reform seems to come in many guises and in the case of Local Government, reform means make ‘em bigger and better. Of course, one of the more interesting things about local government reform (or more correctly amalgamation) is the fact that there is little concern as to whether local government remains ‘local’ in nature. This is an interesting debate in the context of the proposal to recognise local government in the Australian Constitution.
If science is the organised pursuit of triviality and art the casual pursuit of significance (according to Vera Nazarian), which camp does quizzing sit in? Quizzing is a world-wide phenomenon these days. I mean who doesn’t like a quiz. One of my New Zealand clients, Kelvin, is a quizzing whizz and recently took part in the 2013 World Quiz Championships. We got talking about his experience.
The truth is: Melbourne’s weather is killing me. I cycle more than five times a week (to and from work/university/etc.) and maybe it is my bad luck or deadly attractiveness to rain clouds, it always rains when I cycle. And just a week or so ago, Melbourne recorded it’s highest rainfall in a June day since 1904 (read here). While rain isn’t for me, there are definitely people who would welcome it, particularly those who live in areas under extreme weather where their livelihoods and jobs may be affected. Two years ago, when I visited Kyneton, a small town in the north-west of Victoria with a population of about 4,450 people which had been in drought for years, the lady I lived with remarked at the lakes and puddles of water, saying, “It’s beautiful seeing them fill up. It’s the first time in 10 years”. The yearly rainfall in Melbourne has been averaging higher in the past few years (particularly 2011) than the decade prior to 2010 where Victoria as a whole was drought-stricken. However, this is not the same for the whole of Victoria and after two good years of rainfall in 2010 and 2011, there has been signs that the drought is coming back and affecting the region’s farming lands again (read more here). So the question is: Does the weather, particularly in my more extreme situations, affect migration?
Do many Australians move to NZ? This question was posed to the Twitter-sphere recently and thus the topic for my next blog was decided.
In the last week, we have added two exciting new features to profile.id, to further help with telling the demographic story of your area. A custom PDF generator enables you to build a PDF report based on topics and areas of your choice. The data exporter is back and enable you to download data from profile.id for further analysis.
Recently the National Seachange Taskforce released a report about the impact of temporary populations in coastal areas. Central to the report was a survey of non-resident ratepayers, and whether they intend to move to their coastal property in the future. While the report provides some valuable insights into the reasons and motivations behind population change in coastal locations, we know that recent population data shows that growth in coastal areas might be slowing down. The report concludes that 30% of holiday home owners intend to move to their coastal property in the future. But intriguingly, there is no mention of out-migration from coastal areas, which of course is the other side of the migration equation.
Here at .id, we have just launched our first “community of interest” profile based on the 2011 profile.id platform. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (indigenous) community profile lets councils look in detail at their indigenous community, how it relates to the wider population and the region, and how it is changing. Many councils already subscribe to this module, and it is available to any Council with a significant indigenous population so add to their subscription. So what does the indigenous profile show?
At .id we usually present and discuss demographic information about cities, towns, regions and even countries.
But there’s a growing population of people who are not even on the ground – those people who are currently, at this moment, flying somewhere in an aircraft.
So what is the population of this group – and where can you see all their flights represented on an interactive map?
The ABS recently released their small area population estimates for the year ended June 2012. This is the first insight into population change at smaller areas of geography since the 2011 Census. In their analysis, the ABS has moved towards looking at population change at SA2 or SA3 level. But the publication Regional Population Growth (ABS Cat. no 3218.0) contains a wealth of information on population change for LGAs. What are some of the highlights from this ABS release?
Maybe it says something about the type of person I am, but even on holidays my professional life manages to come to the fore. It’s really more about my interest in cities and places, and what makes them tick. I’ve recently returned from Russia where I spent time in Moscow and St Petersburg, two of the more interesting cities on this planet (in my humble opinion). Not only did some of the critical events of the twentieth century happen on Russian soil, but they also have an interesting demographic history and there are aspects of these cities that Australia could learn from.
In my last blog I looked at historical growth in Auckland and talked only briefly about growth projections for Auckland. However, Statistics NZ’s projection that Auckland’s population will grow by a million people over the next 30 years is surely more worthy of a Jack and the Beanstalk heading.
Recently, I did some analysis on what would constitute Australia’s most typical town. While there are many ways you could define this, and it was by no means definitive, I came up with 6 parameters and picked the one that varied the least from the Autralian average. This ended up being Hahndorf in South Australia. That got me thinking – the majority of Australians live in the capital cities, and were excluded from this comparison. How about we look at what is Australia’s most typical suburb – within the state and territory capitals?
You know the monkey ladder story, right?
It’s essentially a parable about resistance to change, but it actually does have a basis in a psychology experiment.
The story varies, but essentially it goes like this:
There was a cage containing five monkeys. Inside the cage, there was a banana hung above a ladder.
Of course, soon after the banana was suspended, a monkey went to climb the ladder to get to the banana. As soon as he started up the ladder, the psychologists sprayed all of the other monkeys with ice cold water.
.id, in conjunction with NIEIR (National Economics), have released a key set of economic indicators for every Local Government Area (LGA) in Australia. The indicators provide a snapshot of each local economy, showing how it contributes to the broader State economy and how it is performing in relation to other areas. Read on to learn more and access the indicators series.
Happy ANZAC day! ANZAC stands for the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps. And today, on 25 April, we honour those who served and died in wars, conflicts, military and peacekeeping operations. The current ANZACs are fighting for 23 million Australians. That’s right: Australia hit another population milestone two days ago on 23 April 2013 with 23 million people. In this blog, we’ll look at how many Australians were the ANZACs protecting at their time.
I’ve been developing a fascination for the heady population growth figures of Auckland. The fascination is particularly strong after recently spending time in the deep south of the South Island and in the Far North, where population growth at any level is not a characteristic of most communities.
If you were picking one town to represent Australia, as a nation, which one would it be? Maybe an iconic Australian location, like Uluru, Byron Bay, Katoomba. Somewhere in the outback like Coober Pedy, Longreach or Broken Hill, or maybe a big city like Sydney or Melbourne? Would it be on the coast or inland? A large or small place? An old or a new place? Well at .id, since we’re demographers, we decided to look at it demographically. Which Australian town has characteristics that are most typical of Australia’s population as a whole?
Since the release of the Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas, we have been getting a lot of questions about whether users can compare SEIFA scores over time. It’s a very natural thing to want to do – we all want to know if our area is getting better or worse off over time. Unfortunately, for the socio-economic indexes, the short answer is NO! And this is why.
Many of us at .id are fortunate to travel to various corners of the country to visit and meet with clients. Not only does this enable us to get to know the places for which we prepare profiles, atlases and forecasts, but travel is a great medium for broadening the mind. On a recent flight back from Perth I sat next to a psychic. Yes, that’s right – a psychic. Right up front I’ll admit that I was skeptical, but my curiosity got the better of me and I started asking questions – after all – I had three hours to kill. And I like to think that I have an open mind about these things. I mean, I’m in the business of forecasting as well – so do psychics and population forecasters have anything in common?
On March 28th, the day before Easter, the ABS released the final dataset derived from the 2011 Census, the Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas. Some people may know this better as the “Index of Disadvantage” because that’s the most widely used one, and the one we present on profile.id and atlas.id. However, there are actually 4 indexes, which each have slightly different uses. Though commonly used, SEIFA is also quite misunderstood, and there is also some stigma attached to having a low SEIFA score. This blog goes through what SEIFA is, and briefly what the new dataset shows.
The ABS has continued its habit of releasing significant results before major public holidays, by releasing the Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) on March 28th, 2013, the day before the Easter break. The SEIFA results show an aggregate measure of Census characteristics pertaining to advantage and disadvantage in communities, and enables users to rank areas on a single scale. What do the results actually show?
In 2011, I wrote about inner city high density housing, and the idea that empty nesters were moving in there. The article concluded that while there were a few empty nesters downsizing into inner city tower blocks, overwhelmingly these areas are occupied by the young, with no strong trend of over 65s moving into high density. That was based on 2006 Census data so I thought it was worth a look to see whether the situation had changed for 2011.
In a previous blog, I discussed the spatial distribution of different ethnicities in New Zealand. Now that the 2013 census is well under way, it is interesting to contemplate what the results will reveal in regard to New Zealand’s changing ethnic profile. Cultural affiliations are self-identified, so some areas of change in the ethnicity profile might be influenced by external forces.
The economic data modelling in economy.id, done by National Economics, is a sophisticated micro-simulation model of your local economy, and is updated every year. We have just loaded a new dataset, complete to the end of the 2011-12 financial year onto economy.id. But it’s not just the latest year’s data which has been updated, the data is now even more sensitive to local factors and variations.
Over the years I’ve heard many people from local government excuse their lack of interest in population forecasts by blaming it on a lack of growth in their municipality. ”Why do we need to know about our future population when there’s no growth?” is a common lament. It seems that if there’s no visual evidence of population growth, then there’s an assumption (‘cuse the pun!) that there is no need to plan for future population needs. Or is there? While it’s true that the overwhelming majority of .id’s forecasts prepared for local councils do assume growth, a closer look reveals that it’s not all chocolates and roses – many small areas have relatively stable or declining populations. And just because the total population of a municipality might be stable or declining, this often masks considerable change at more local levels of geography. Let’s have a look at some examples.
A while ago, Jim wrote a blog about the Google Glass and what it can do. Before we know it, earlier this year, Google released its first developer’s version which could be bought at approximately USD$1500. Google has also confirmed that by the end of 2013, everyone would be able to purchase a pair (hopefully way under USD$1500). But… will Australia catch the fever?
Our clients often express a bit of uncertainty about the difference between the various approaches to population forecasting.
In this blog I will give you a basic overview of the differences between the bottoms-up and tops-down approaches, as well explaining the benefits of bottoms-up population forecasting.
Happy International Women’s Day! Every year on 8 March, the world comes together to celebrate the achievements and equality of women. While there’s much testosterone at .id, and that the number of women can be counted with slightly more than one hand (there are seven of us – nonetheless, .id is an equal opportunity employer), we sure do know a thing or two about Australian women.
Well, according to this article and a report on one of those 6:30pm shows on the telly, that’s what the good citizens of Taradale, Victoria decided to do, when the ABS apparently no longer had stats for their town’s population. But did they? And why would a town just drop off the map?
Previously we have looked at the size of Australia’s cities in a variety of ways. The top 33 urban areas in Australia has been one of the most popular blogs on this site, and I keep being asked to update it with the 2011 Census results. That’s not so easy, because the ABS has changed the geography and split up some of the areas into smaller centres. So I thought we could look at another way of sorting the list, which actually may make more sense to most people. This is the ABS :”Urban Centre or Locality” structure.
.id is always on the lookout for good people with skills in any of the following areas: demographic analysis, forecasting, spatial analysis, geography and urban planning, client management and sales. And at the moment we have a number of specific technical roles that we are looking to fill. So if you like the sound of working for a small, successful and innovative team please read on…
Kia ora, gidday mate!
You can expect to be greeted with a cheery “ Kia ora” when ringing the Wairoa District Council and that’s not because they want to be politically correct – but more likely because over half of Wairoa’s population is of Maori descent.
There’s a growing trend around the world (especially since the GFC) to adopt a simpler lifestyle, with less “baggage”.
Many people in the developed countries are seeing the benefits of having less financial commitments, a less cluttered lifestyle and more leisure time to pursue their favorite activities.
Part of this trend has extended to housing. Despite Australians seeking larger and larger houses (see Simone’s blog on the Australian tendency towards even more bedrooms) there are some around the world who are doing the opposite, and reaping the rewards of a lower (or no) mortgage, less space to clean and a home that’s much easier to maintain.
This trend often goes hand in hand with higher density dwellings, and the need for smaller houses to use their limited space more efficiently.
Some time ago we published a blog about the “cube” a design study of a fully-functional house that is just 3m square.
But a new design, called the “roll-it” is even more innovative, and makes even more use of limited space – but to me, it seems more like the international Space Station than a home.
Would you want to live in it?
Read on to find out….
A client contacted us recently to request a calculation of the centre of population for their local area. Steve quickly responded to this request, and some discussion and speculation within the team followed on where Melbourne’s population centre is.
So – what is the centre of population and why does it matter? …
At .id we like to keep an eye on demographic trends worldwide as well as in Australia. This article caught our eye recently. It says that the number of deaths in Tokyo has now exceeded the number of births, as the population continues to age. Japan is now one of the most elderly societies in the world and the population has begun to decline as a result.
Australia’s official population count, Estimated Resident Population (ERP), is always revised following a census. This year however additional revisions have been announced following a methodological improvement in census processes, this will have ongoing implications for all users of ERP data …
The Gold Coast is an interesting study in urban geography, especially in the Australian context, as its rise to prominence as a major urban area is a relatively recent phenomenon. It has moved well beyond its traditional role as a simply a tourism and retirement destination (though these are still important). I can’t think of anywhere else in Australia where the skyline looks as if it has been plucked straight out of Florida and plonked on our shores. It’s unique for its settlement pattern, its relatively short history, and its rapid growth. What population and housing trends can we observe?
Melbourne is often described as Australia’s sporting capital, home to iconic events such as the Boxing Day Test, the Australian Tennis Open and the F1 GP, not to mention the home of most of the AFL clubs.
But the new Australia community profile shows there’s much more to Melbourne and its people, and also helps to explain why sport makes up so much of the social fabric of Melbourne.
Of course, Melbourne’s climate lends itself to outdoor activities for children from a young age, which helps in the development of future stars in the wake of Melbourne legends like Shane Warne and Gary Ablett – or Mark Viduka.
But if we look more closely, we see there’s much more to the Melbourne community.
As users of the .id tools, you would be used to providing sound, verified information for use in making evidence-based decisions. In doing so you would often come across other commonly held views or opinions based on rumour, misinformation or just old data – which you use the .id tools to try and dispel.
The well-known Australian slang term for such mistruths is a “Furphy”. But just where does this term come from, and what does World War 1 have to do with it?
A crystal ball isn’t necessary to predict that the 2013 census will confirm an increasingly diverse New Zealand population. The “who”, and “where” of this prediction requires more thought though, because the geographical spread and age profiles of New Zealand’s main ethnic groups vary.
I was recently asked by one of .id’s clients as to why there was a difference between the employment figures produced by the Census, and those produced by the Dept of Employment, Education and Workplace Relations (DEEWR) in their Small Area Labour Markets publication. The answer is a relatively straightforward one – and I’ll elaborate below – but it did make me think that there are a lot of different employment statistics floating around, and that other readers may be interested in what’s available, what the data says, and what the difference is between the collections. We even use a range of different employment statistics in our own products. Read on….
The .id Australian Community Profile site makes it easy to analyse census data, in this blog I explore changes to the numbers and settlement patterns of Australian residents born overseas…
The 2011 Census 2nd release revealed an intriguing result. Looking at the broad 19 standard industry divisions, the largest employer of workers in Australia is now the Health Care and Social Assistance Industry. We have been told for a long time that this was a growth industry, but it has still taken many by surprise, particularly given that mining jobs get much of the media attention!
Two of the main aspects of “money” are a medium of exchange and a measure of value.
In Economics, Cliff’s Notes provides a good definition: “providing a common measure of the value of goods and services being exchanged. Knowing the value or price of a good, in terms of money, enables both the supplier and the purchaser of the good to make decisions about how much of the good to supply and how much of the good to purchase.”
But it seems in recent times, other items or common purchases have become a measure of value in themselves. One of these, especially lately, seems to be a cup of coffee.
It seems that every day, we are enticed to buy things on TV, radio or print advertising for “less than the daily price of a cup of coffee”.
For example, many types of insurance can apparently be had for less than the price of a cup of coffee per day.
But how much does this represent, and does it make sense to make this comparison?
The Broken Hill City Council recently adopted the use of profile.id and economy.id to explore and understand the changing characteristics of their community and their economy.
As with all .id clients, we encouraged them to promote and share these tools so their local community, local businesses and other regional associations could also access the sites to provide an evidence-base for their own planning and investment decisions.
We are delighted that they have done just that, by preparing an interesting and engaging media release containing pertinent observations as well as insightful comments.
Please read their release, published verbatim, below:
The 2012 Australian Population Association Conference (APA) was held in Melbourne last week. This is the biennial conference held by Australia’s professional organisation for demographers, and the program showed a good mix of academia, government and even the private sector! The theme of the conference was population change – past, present and future. Of course .id was well represented (Richard, Esther, Nenad and Johnny) and Simone gave a presentation on our thoughts about population change in the lead up to the Census, and how that has borne out in reality, particularly with respect to how the data is informing our forecast assumptions. This link will take you to the conference website where you can view the full program. What were the conference highlights?
After first release of Census, I wrote a blog about the higher quality of the Census data in 2011, compared to 2006. In general this is true, but unfortunately the second release has revealed an area where the quality of the 2011 Census is far far worse than 2006 or 2001. This is in the area of place of work, or work destination data, and it makes time series comparison very difficult for our users. This means we will be less able to rely on Census as an estimate of workforce numbers in 2011, and underscores the need for modelled estimates to give LGAs a better handle on their number of workers. Read on for more information.
Following on from the annual release of births data, yes you guessed it – the ABS recently released Deaths, Australia (Cat. no. 3302.0). This release contains statistics on the number and characteristics of deaths in Australia, including data for small geographic areas such as LGAs. Similar to births, data on deaths forms a critical component of our population forecasts. This blog will summarise some of the main points from this year’s release.
.id regards the ABS website as a fantastic resource for raw data pertaining to Australian society. The ABS run one of the most comprehensive and high quality Censuses in the world, so Local Government in Australia is fortunate to have access to a great repository of demographic data to help them tell the story of their communities. It has long been our position that such valuable data should be available free of charge to the widest possible audience in order to promote better decision making at all levels of society.
Since the release of the 2011 Census results we’ve been commenting (and blogging) about the massive population growth in Australia since 2006, particularly in Capital cities and surrounding suburbs.
Along with this population growth has come increased density in many areas, and of course more urban sprawl.
The 230+ profile.id sites around Australia have now been updated with the latest second release data from the 2011 Census. The data was released at the end of October by the ABS, so we’ve been working flat out to get the data into all the sites in less than three weeks.
How we occupy households is a little considered aspect of how populations at small areas grow and change. We’ve already looked at vacant dwellings, but what about those dwellings that are occupied? The household composition variable from the Census tells us how people live in dwellings, whether it’s a family household with one or two parents, a lone person household, or a group household. Household composition varies considerably across a region and has some relationship to age, but it also reflects the evolving nature of our suburbs and how they change as they mature. Let’s look at some examples and what factors .id’s forecasters consider.
Starting with the 2001 Census, the ABS added a new topic to the already extensive list of Census questions relating to cultural diversity. The question was about Ancestry. At .id we have just added this topic to profile.id sites for all our local government users, with 3 Census years available. This post looks at the main findings of the ancestry question and what it can do.
From the mid 1970s to 1990, kiwis would tune in every week to watch a popular TV show called “Top Town” in which contestants from all over the country, whether from the tiniest of towns or biggest cities, competed through many different obstacle challenges to determine New Zealand’s “Top Town”…for that week. Though we are still waiting for our .id obstacle course development plans to be approved, I thought I’d look at New Zealand’s “top towns” by going to our bread and butter – demographic information.