Category: New Zealand
In my last blog I looked at historical growth in Auckland and talked only briefly about growth projections for Auckland. However, Statistics NZ’s projection that Auckland’s population will grow by a million people over the next 30 years is surely more worthy of a Jack and the Beanstalk heading.
I’ve been developing a fascination for the heady population growth figures of Auckland. The fascination is particularly strong after recently spending time in the deep south of the South Island and in the Far North, where population growth at any level is not a characteristic of most communities.
In a previous blog, I discussed the spatial distribution of different ethnicities in New Zealand. Now that the 2013 census is well under way, it is interesting to contemplate what the results will reveal in regard to New Zealand’s changing ethnic profile. Cultural affiliations are self-identified, so some areas of change in the ethnicity profile might be influenced by external forces.
Kia ora, gidday mate!
You can expect to be greeted with a cheery “ Kia ora” when ringing the Wairoa District Council and that’s not because they want to be politically correct – but more likely because over half of Wairoa’s population is of Maori descent.
A crystal ball isn’t necessary to predict that the 2013 census will confirm an increasingly diverse New Zealand population. The “who”, and “where” of this prediction requires more thought though, because the geographical spread and age profiles of New Zealand’s main ethnic groups vary.
From the mid 1970s to 1990, kiwis would tune in every week to watch a popular TV show called “Top Town” in which contestants from all over the country, whether from the tiniest of towns or biggest cities, competed through many different obstacle challenges to determine New Zealand’s “Top Town”…for that week. Though we are still waiting for our .id obstacle course development plans to be approved, I thought I’d look at New Zealand’s “top towns” by going to our bread and butter – demographic information.
This week Statistics New Zealand released subnational population estimates for the year to 30th June 2012. These releases provide estimates of the population at the regional and territorial authority (TA) level. The subnational population estimates are published annually whereas the national population estimates (ERPs) are published quarterly.
The provisional population estimate for New Zealand for the year ending 30 June 2012 is 4,433,100 – an increase of 27,900 or 0.6% from the previous year. The key facts and points of interest from this release will be explored in two blog articles. Firstly, we will look at Christchurch and the Canterbury region.
A while ago I wrote about internal migration patterns, noting that New Zealand has surprisingly high levels in internal mobility. Yet while New Zealand communities are constantly changing as a result of people moving around their districts and the country, community profiles are also becoming increasingly diverse due to immigration patterns. The concept of increasing diversity in New Zealand is hardly novel, however some of the trends underlying this change make interesting reading, particularly when looking back over the last fifty years.
Local government in New Zealand is on the verge of reform … again. The recent Better Local Government proposals are poised to potentially transform the role and shape of councils. But change is not a new thing for Kiwi councils.
The tradition of census records is almost as old as recorded history itself. There is evidence that China compiled lists of inhabitants for tax and military purposes as early as 2300 BC and for similar reasons, ancient Babylonia and Egypt conducted a census of its citizens. Read the rest of this entry
It was a pleasure to spend time in Wanganui recently at the Wanganui District Council-run TechEx (checkout their website www.techex.co.nz ). It was a three day IT expo focusing on the opportunities that their new ultra-fast broadband link could and would facilitate in the region. We attended and discovered just how many and varied users are accessing demographic information. Read the rest of this entry
A case study of the impacts of service delivery on population outcomes.
Wanganui District Council became the third New Zealand council to take on .id’s community profile, and I recently spent time in this soulful and very beautiful part of New Zealand training with staff and community groups. Wanganui District Council and the wider community were, at the time, grappling with a difficult issue. The District Health Board had proposed shifting some of Wanganui’s local Child and Maternal Health Care services to Palmerston North, some 45 minutes away. The local newspaper was running headlines on it, and it was the old story of centralisation versus local services.
Local Government does great work consulting with its local communities. But as these communities change and become increasingly diverse, is the public consultation process keeping up with this trend?
…and our work in New Zealand is proving no exception
Forecasting is inevitably controversial because it specifically quantifies assumptions we make about the future, raising questions about the future that can be considered mere opinion. As we in the forecasting game say, “One thing certain about a forecast is that it will be wrong!” But there are distinct benefits in undertaking the process of forecasting because it forces us to question our assumptions and better understand our cities in the process.
Hey urban planners in OZ!… Do you want some challenges that are a bit different from managing growth? Well check out what’s happening in New Zealand.
For very different reasons, planners in the two largest cities in New Zealand (Auckland and Christchurch) have had to produce comprehensive strategic plans – in no time flat.
Moving from where you currently live is generally a big deal because it is typically costly and in particular it is hard to leave your local friends and family. People tend to have different propensities to migrate at different times throughout their lives. Young adults move more frequently than the middle aged; young families stay put if they can; empty nesters move to be closer to their grand children; and the elderly move only when they absolutely have to. What drives migration?
Spatial Planning has a long tradition in the northern hemisphere; and it’s likely to be widely adopted by local government in New Zealand – with Auckland Council about to publish its first Spatial Plan.
In my short time in New Zealand, I have observed some concern about Census data being ‘out-of-date’, with that concern being fuelled by it now being delayed to 2013. However, I believe the 2006 Census data is alive and well! There is in fact plenty more work to do analysing the existing Census data (1996, 2001 & 2006) to better understand our cities and places; and to use it to raise questions and issues in anticipation of receiving the next round of Census data some time in 2014. Here’s an example, simply using 2006 Census data…
Just over three weeks ago, on Tuesday the 22nd of February 2011, Christchurch, the largest city on New Zealand’s South Island was hit by a devastating 6.3 magnitude earthquake killing over 160 people, injuring hundreds more and displacing thousands of Christchurch residents to other parts of the Canterbury region, the rest of New Zealand and as far away as Australia. Three days after the disaster, New Zealand’s Government Statistician, Geoff Bascand and Statistics Minister Maurice Williamson announced that New Zealand’s 2011 census (scheduled for 8th March) would be cancelled. What are the implications?
Having recently begun .id’s first overseas foray, Johnny, Lailani and I went to Wellington to launch the first New Zealand profile.id site for the City of Wellington. The Mayor Celia Wade-Brown made an eloquent presentation, backed up by some great press from the local paper.
“The profile enables us to have the mazimum confidence in the decisions we make, to manage our assets to meet changing demands of changing populations and allocate resources where they are most needed.”
At these events it is always ideal to find a good news story from the socio-economic data which, as it turns out, was a pretty easy task for the City of Wellington.
