Kiwi migration to Australia slows. Why?
Last week, Statistics New Zealand released their “International Travel and Migration” statistics for the December 2013 year. Standout figure – a net GAIN (yes gain) of 22,468 migrants to New Zealand compared to a loss of 1,165 in 2012.
Why has this happened? New Zealand is a country which is still in economic and natural disaster recovery mode, right? Australia is the biggest factor in the Kiwi brain drain. Could the tides have turned?
Statistics New Zealand point out the main reason behind this net migration change in the media release notes – “In the latest year, New Zealand had a net loss of 19,600 migrants to Australia, well down from 38,800 a year earlier. Net gains were recorded from most other countries, led by the United Kingdom (5,800), China (5,700), and India (5,400).”
The main focus was on the sharp decline in the net loss of New Zealanders to Australia – 14,522 fewer kiwis leaving for Australia than the year before along with 4,669 more people arriving to New Zealand from Australia (Kiwi ex-pats returning home?).
Year ended Dec. 2011 | Year ended Dec. 2012 | Year ended Dec. 2013 | |
Australia – NZ migration | 14,186 | 14,880 | 19,549 |
NZ – Australia migration | 51,054 | 53,676 | 39,154 |
Net migration | -36,868 | -38,796 | -19,605 |
Source: Statistics New Zealand
So those are the figures, but why might we be seeing this turnaround and how does it fit with the public perceptions here in Australia and those in New Zealand?
This blog is timely because late last week, adjunct fellow at the Swinburne Institute for Social Research and contributing editor to the Inside Story magazine, Peter Mares, wrote a great article about the changing public perception of New Zealanders in Australia. The article provides social commentary and examples of how media has in recent times resorted to labelling New Zealanders “dole bludgers” as they “flood” into Australia looking for jobs. The point raised in the article about media reports of an “immigration back door” is a legitimate one that concerns both Australia and New Zealand where people from other countries come to New Zealand and stay there until a citizenship is gained after which they move to Australia for the perceived broader quality of life and employment opportunities.
This and some of the “immigration soaring” headlines that Peter Mares refers to, all crumble when fronted with the latest Stats NZ numbers illustrating the fall in the number of people leaving New Zealand for supposed greener pastures of Australia. Public perception is something that often simply ignores presented facts – “Kiwis scapegoat foreigners just as Aussies do…”. Meanwhile in New Zealand, the public is concerned that if things turn sour once they move to Australia, there won’t be a welfare system safety net to look out for them even though most New Zealanders who live and work in Australia pay taxes.
Back to the why question. I think the public perception of a person’s country of residence’s economy (and the one they may be looking to move to) has a lot to do with the changing migration numbers. Just look at the headlines below, the first from the Sydney Morning Herald (Dec. 2013) and the second, a mirror opposite from the New Zealand Herald (late Jan. 2014). Consumer confidence numbers seem to be heading in different directions depending on which side of the ditch you’re on. This of course affects sales and trade and is driven by other economic indicators, such as unemployment, next on my agenda.
Source: Sydney Morning Herald
Source: The New Zealand
Unemployment rates in Australia have been increasing slightly in the past couple of years and last week the Australian unemployment rate “shot up to 6%, its highest level in more than a decade”, that is, higher than during the peak of the “Global Financial Crisis” (Westpac Weekly 12 Feb. 2014). The New Zealand unemployment rate is decreasing slightly, currently at 6%, lowest since March 2010 and is forecast to be 5.9% in the March 2014 quarter, an encouraging sign of a continuous, albeit slightly slow, decrease.
Note – the charts below display 24 bars and since New Zealand unemployment data is released quarterly whereas Australia’s is released monthly – the timelines are different.
Source: Trading Economics/ABS
Source: Trading Economics/Statistics New Zealand
Australians and New Zealanders are a competitive bunch, so the opposing trends in unemployment rates are frequently discussed in the media and with many curious New Zealanders seeing headlines such as the ones below in the press, they’re either appreciating their patch of grass more, or putting off eventual moves to Australia until they see how all of this plays out.
Source: The Age
Source: The Age
Source: The Age
So what will we be talking about in a year when Statistics New Zealand release the December 2014 “International Travel and Migration” numbers? It doesn’t take a forecaster to know that you shouldn’t base sweeping statements and bold assumptions on one data point (no matter how tempting that might be). However, if similar migration numbers appear or if the trends strengthen, you can expect a lot more social commentary, as well as public and media interest.
I expect to see similar Australia-to-NZ migration numbers (+/- 10% from 2013) but even lower NZ-to-Australia migration numbers as fewer New Zealanders move to Australia. I am not an economic expert, so I invite anyone who is interested in this topic to write a comment below and tell us why they think the “change in migration tides” between Australia and New Zealand might be occurring?
Could a lot of ex-pat Kiwis who are devoted Paul Henry fans be following him back to Aotearoa? Unlikely.
Are a lot of Kiwis staying at home rather than coming across the ditch because the craft beer and boutique wine selection is so good in New Zealand?
Hmm, that assumption we might need to test.
You can access demographic profiles for New Zealand at .id’s demographic resource centre, including country of birth and migration information.
Any half baked economist knows AU is in the crap. I live in Sydney and work in NZ. What does that tell you? Tells me there is no Food Processing, Dairy, Timber or anything else other than a run down minerals sector left here. I’m sick of the commute, so am moving to NZ before they shut the gate on AU citizens that are flooding there now. Kiwis winge about influx of AU citizens – watch this space – they’ll shut the gate.
In my opinion, Australia is heading into one hell of a recession. All the NZ’s here sitting in jobs that our own unemployed could have, would halve our unemployment rate overnight. I would not want to be a NZder here on an unprotected SCV as a guest worker and find themselves suddenly without work. They’ll have no choice to move back because the competition for jobs is extremely high. Companies are no longer hiring. It’s really bad 🙁
I think it’s a bit too early to be counting the moving boxes that are coming into Australia from New Zealand, and not that we should be too concerned. I think it’s great that they are finding something to stay for in their own country – it just means that we need to buck up to do something to win them back that’s all! All’s fair in good competition anywho right?
its purely because of citizenship issues 99 present trust me
It is because of the immigration laws. That is what I think as a Kiwi national
nepia kino you could be right! “its purely because of citizenship issues 99 present trust me”
With no right to vote!
Or 3% of the aussie population (650,000) Kiwis! With family and friends support + being outspoken could – would have changed goverments! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Government Howard predicted that thou…
Many ex-pat kiwi’s claim that Australia is now the ‘Land of Prejudice’. It is…!
See:-
http://www.lighthousecare.org.au/news/item/native-affairs Excellent Kiwi tv report Even kiwi Russell Crowe, rejected for Australian citzenship.
http://www.ozkiwi2001.org/rights-compared/ Terrible & Unfair, it will be Decades of Kiwi Hardship for some & lack of fair rights / work rights for others, for this to be seen by the voting public for what it is…………. to work that out.
http://www.ozkiwi2001.org/how-kiwis-in-oz-are-disadvantaged/
Kiwi’s Families, friends and all fair go Australians, including Tony Abotts wife, who is Kiwi should vote Labour. (Even with Bill Shorten & Labours lack of policies). Because the Liberal National Coalition with Tony ( who made the ‘Land of Prejudice’ law ), is still the very very mean & extreme right….. Just as WorkChoices was voted out by the public (with Kevin Rudd elected). as a fundamentally unfair law. So Liberal National Coalition legislation is still in the spot light for being unfair…& all Liberal National Coalition politicians.
yes agree Aussies don’t won’t kiwis treat refugees better and look after other nationalities better .
The 2011 / 2012 LARGE spike was a result of effects from the Christchurch Earthquakes well above long term trends, I find it a little fascinating that $US35 BILLION disaster killing 185 people was missed in the blog.
Australia is now loosing people to NZ, I think a lot of what is occurring at the moment is a real paradigm shift. Kiwis are now “comprehending” due to media coverage of this topic, living in Australia on a visa “classed” as temporary work visa BUT is actually a limited rights permanent resident visa is not viable long term.
If a skilled Kiwi’s career is NOT on the official “skills shortage list” they have virtually no chance of Citizenship, but why does this matter?…..
Well lets say after 40 years+ of working in Aus the Kiwi is made redundant age 61 through no fault of their own. At age 61 finding a job will be very hard. So the Kiwi has to survive 9 years till retirement with zero government assistance (during this time they have put down deep family roots in Australia). Even worse Aussie employers don’t get Australian government assistance for employing a aged worker that is a Kiwi so would prefer to employ a non Kiwi!.
Of course this is one obvious example, but Kiwis that previously did not care about welfare (most in Aus), are now realiseing we can’t always control our own fate. The media of course are portraying “they want the dole” without mentioning the Kiwi employment participation rate was 10% higher than the Aus national average prior to 2001 when Kiwis COULD get the dole!. Kiwis have never been dole bludgers, Kiwis don’t move to Aus to live in poverty on the dole any more than most Aussies want to.
In a nut shell us Kiwis are getting a little tired of working hard and being portrayed as unemployed Maoris on the Gold Coast all the time, the latest Australian media beat up is “Crime” which is a TINY bit higher than the national average 199/100,000 opposed to 196/100,000 people for the Aus national average, some years its been lower!, lets face it about the same!
.
I now would advise any Kiwis thinking of a change to think twice unless you are on the Aus official Skilled Shortage List and can obtain Aus citizenship. As for any Aussies thinking of NZ there is really not much to loose, you can apply for citizenship after two years living in NZ which “used” to work both ways as part of the bilateral agreement.
Hi Simon,
Thanks for your interest in our blogs and your comment. While the Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 did definitely impact Christchurch City’s population and migration patterns, the effect on international net migration was not significant. TAs and district immediately outside Christchurch were affected (http://blog.id.com.au/2012/population/new-zealand/ongoing-impact-of-canterbury-earthquakes-reflected-in-the-latest-subnational-population-estimates/).
I had a look at the December 2014 figures from Stats NZ (see below for link) and the Dec. 2014 numbers of Kiwis migrating to Australia were way lower than the 39,154 in 2013. They were in fact 23,275, so a decrease of 12,082 (30.9% less). Couple that with an even higher number of people migrating to New Zealand from Australia (23,275 in the Dec.2014 year) and all of a sudden you have close to a net neutral migration balance. Actually the net loss of NZers to Australia was still 3,797 in 2014 but this is a big decrease from a loss of 19,605 the year before.
In my blog I made a crude prediction that the migration from Australia may go up/down by 10%. In reality, it increased by 19%. When Stats NZ publishes the Dec. 2015 figures here (http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/international-travel-and-migration-info-releases.aspx), it’ll be interesting to see how the trend changes. The November 2015 figures suggest we’ll see a net gain of residents from Australia for the first time in quite a while.
Here’s a quick overview of the migration movements to and from Australia since 2009 just in case you were interested.
2009
TO Australia – 32,755
FROM Australia – 14,793
NET NZ/AUS – -17,962
TOTAL NET MIG FOR NZ – +21,253
2010
TO Australia – 36,830
FROM Australia – 15,842
NET NZ/AUS – -20,988
TOTAL NET MIG FOR NZ – +10,451
2011
TO Australia – 51,054
FROM Australia – 14,186
NET NZ/AUS – -36,868
TOTAL NET MIG FOR NZ – -1,855
2012
TO Australia – 53,676
FROM Australia – 14,880
NET NZ/AUS – -38,796
TOTAL NET MIG FOR NZ – +690
2013
TO Australia – 39,154
FROM Australia – 19,549
NET NZ/AUS – -19,605
TOTAL NET MIG FOR NZ – +23,633
2014
TO Australia – 27,072
FROM Australia – 23,275
NET NZ/AUS – -3,797
TOTAL NET MIG FOR NZ – +28,454
Nenad
Regarding the second part of your comment – I definitely think there’s truth in that and with NZ’;s economy on the rise, as discussed here, moving to NZ has become an option for many New Zealanders here in Australia.
Thanks again, Nenad
Just released, 2015 December figures (http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/IntTravelAndMigration_HOTPDec15.aspx):
2015
TO Australia – 24,504
FROM Australia – 25,273
NET NZ/AUS – +769